nkhani

Juni 21, 2023

WASHINGTON, DC - Kukakamizika kwachuma kwakhala chimodzi mwazovuta kwambiri komanso zovuta zomwe zikukula padziko lonse lapansi masiku ano, zomwe zakhala zikudetsa nkhawa za kuwonongeka kwa chuma cha padziko lonse, ndondomeko ya malonda okhudzana ndi malamulo, komanso chitetezo ndi kukhazikika kwa mayiko. Chowonjezera nkhaniyi ndizovuta zomwe maboma padziko lonse lapansi, makamaka mayiko ang'onoang'ono ndi apakati, akukumana nazo, pochitapo kanthu moyenera.

Potengera izi, Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) idachita zokambirana pa intaneti "Kulimbana ndi Kukakamiza Pazachuma: Zida ndi Njira Zogwirira Ntchito Pamodzi,” pa February 28 motsogozedwa ndiWendy Cutler, Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti wa ASPI; ndi mawonekedweVictor Cha, Wachiwiri Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti wa Asia ndi Korea Mpando ku Center for Strategic and International Studies;Melanie Hart, Mlangizi Wamkulu wa China ndi Indo-Pacific mu Ofesi ya Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and Environment;Ryuichi Funatsu, Mtsogoleri wa Economic Security Policy Division ku Unduna wa Zachilendo ku Japan; ndiMariko Togashi, Research Fellow for Japanese Security and Defense Policy ku International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Mafunso otsatirawa anakambidwa:

• Kodi mayiko angagwirizane bwanji kuti athetse vuto la kukakamiza kwachuma, ndipo kodi ndondomeko yolepheretsa chuma chamagulu ingakwaniritsidwe bwanji pankhaniyi?
• Kodi mayiko angagonjetse bwanji mantha awo obwezera kuchokera ku China ndikugwirira ntchito limodzi kuthana ndi mantha motsutsana ndi njira zake zokakamiza?
• Kodi mitengo yamitengo ingathetseretu kukakamiza pazachuma, ndi zida zina ziti zomwe zilipo?
• Kodi mabungwe apadziko lonse lapansi, monga WTO, OECD, ndi G7, angachitepo chiyani popewa komanso kuthana ndi kukakamiza pazachuma?
  

  Collective Economic Deterrence

  Victor Chaadavomereza kukula kwa nkhaniyi ndi zotsatira zake zowononga. Anatinso, "Kukakamiza pazachuma ku China ndivuto lenileni ndipo sikungowopseza dongosolo lazamalonda. Zikuwopseza dongosolo la mayiko omasuka,” ndipo anawonjezera kuti, “Akukakamiza mayiko kusankha kapena kusasankha zinthu zimene zilibe chochita ndi malonda. Ayenera kuchita ndi zinthu monga demokalase ku Hong Kong, ufulu wa anthu ku Xinjiang, zinthu zosiyanasiyana. Potchula zofalitsa zake zaposachedwa muNkhani Zakunjas magazini, adalimbikitsa kufunikira koletsa kukakamiza kotere, ndipo adayambitsa njira ya "kulimba mtima pamodzi," yomwe imaphatikizapo kuzindikira mayiko ambiri omwe akukhudzidwa ndi kukakamiza kwachuma ku China komanso kutumiza zinthu ku China komwe kumadalira kwambiri. Cha adati kuwopseza kuti achite zinthu limodzi, monga "Ndime 5 yokhudzana ndi chuma chonse," zitha kukweza mtengo ndikulepheretsa "kuponderezana kwachuma ku China komanso zida zaku China zodalirana." Komabe, adavomerezanso kuti kuthekera kwa ndale kuchitapo kanthu kungakhale kovuta.

  Melanie Hartadalongosola kuti zochitika zokakamiza zachuma ndi mikangano yankhondo ndizosiyana, ndipo kukakamiza pazachuma nthawi zambiri kumachitika mu "dera la imvi," ndikuwonjezera kuti, "Izo sizimawonekera poyera. Iwo amabisika mwamapangidwe. Popeza kuti Beijing savomereza poyera kugwiritsa ntchito njira zamalonda ngati chida ndipo m'malo mwake amagwiritsa ntchito njira zowonetsera, adanenanso kuti ndikofunikira kubweretsa poyera ndikuwulula njirazi. Hart adawonetsanso kuti njira yabwino ndi yomwe aliyense amakhala wokhazikika komanso amatha kutsata mabizinesi atsopano ndi misika, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti kukakamiza pazachuma kukhala "kopanda chochitika."

  Kuyesetsa Kuthana ndi Kukakamiza Pazachuma

  Melanie Hartadagawana malingaliro a boma la US kuti Washington imawona kukakamiza pazachuma ngati chiwopsezo ku chitetezo cha dziko komanso dongosolo lokhazikitsidwa ndi malamulo. Ananenanso kuti US yakhala ikuchulukitsa kusiyanasiyana kwazinthu zogulitsira ndikupereka chithandizo mwachangu kwa ogwirizana ndi anzawo omwe akukumana ndi kukakamizidwa kwachuma, monga tawonera mu thandizo laposachedwa la US ku Lithuania. Adawonanso thandizo lazambiri ku US Congress pothana ndi nkhaniyi, ndipo adati mitengo yamitengo singakhale yankho labwino kwambiri. Hart adanenanso kuti njira yabwinoyi ingaphatikizepo kuyesetsa kogwirizana ndi mayiko osiyanasiyana, koma kuyankha kungasiyane kutengera katundu kapena misika yomwe ikukhudzidwa. Choncho, adatsutsa kuti cholinga chake ndi kupeza zoyenera pazochitika zilizonse, osati kudalira njira imodzi yokha.

  Mariko Togashiadakambirana zomwe Japan idakumana nazo pakukakamiza zachuma ku China pazambiri zapadziko lapansi, ndipo adati Japan idakwanitsa kuchepetsa kudalira China kuchokera pa 90 peresenti mpaka 60 peresenti mzaka pafupifupi 10 kudzera mu chitukuko chaukadaulo. Komabe, adavomerezanso kuti kudalira 60% kudali chopinga chachikulu chomwe chiyenera kuthana nacho. Togashi anagogomezera kufunika kwa kusiyanasiyana, thandizo la ndalama, ndi kugawana nzeru pofuna kupewa kukakamiza pazachuma. Pomwe akuwunikira chidwi cha Japan o kukwaniritsa kudziyimira pawokha komanso kufunikira kowonjezera mphamvu ndi kuchepetsa kudalira mayiko ena, adati kupeza ufulu wodzilamulira ndizosatheka m'dziko lililonse, zomwe zimafunikira kuyankha pamodzi, ndipo adati, "Kuyesetsa kwadziko ndikofunikira ndithu, koma kutengera malire, ndikuganiza kuti kupeza ufulu wodzilamulira ndi mayiko omwe ali ndi malingaliro ofanana ndikofunikira. ”

  Kulankhula ndi Economic Coercion ku G7

   

  Ryuichi Funatsuadagawana malingaliro a boma la Japan, ndikuzindikira kuti mutuwo ukhala umodzi mwazinthu zofunika kukambidwa pa Msonkhano wa Atsogoleri a G7, wotsogozedwa ndi Japan chaka chino. Funatsu adagwira mawu a G7 Leaders' Communique chilankhulo chokakamiza pazachuma kuyambira 2022, "Tikulitsa tcheru ku ziwopsezo, kuphatikiza kukakamiza kwachuma, zomwe zikuyenera kusokoneza chitetezo ndi bata padziko lonse lapansi. Kuti izi zitheke, tidzayesetsa kupititsa patsogolo mgwirizano ndikufufuza njira zopititsira patsogolo kuwunika, kukonzekera, kuletsa, ndi kuyankha kuopsa kotereku, pogwiritsa ntchito njira zabwino zothetsera kuwonekera kudera lonse la G7, "ndipo adati Japan idzatenga chilankhulochi ngati malangizo oti mupite patsogolo chaka chino. Adanenanso za udindo wa mabungwe apadziko lonse lapansi ngati OECD "pakudziwitsa anthu padziko lonse lapansi," ndipo adatchulanso lipoti la ASPI mu 2021 lotchedwa,Kuyankha ku Trade Coercion, zomwe zinati bungwe la OECD likhazikitse mndandanda wa njira zokakamiza komanso kukhazikitsa nkhokwe kuti ziwonetsere bwino.

   

  Poyankha zomwe aphungu akufuna kuwona ngati zotsatira za msonkhano wa G7 wa chaka chino,Victor Cha"Kukambitsirana kwa njira yomwe imathandizira kapena kuonjezera mphamvu zochepetsera komanso kulimba mtima zomwe zimayang'ana momwe mamembala a G7 angagwirire ntchito powonetsa mtundu wina wa kulepheretsa chuma," pozindikira kudalira kwambiri kwa China pazinthu zapamwamba komanso zapakati. Mariko Togashi adanenanso kuti akuyembekeza kuwona chitukuko chowonjezereka ndi zokambirana zamagulu, ndikugogomezera kufunika kovomereza kusiyana kwa kayendetsedwe ka chuma ndi mafakitale pakati pa mayiko kuti apeze zomwe akugwirizana nazo ndikutsimikizira kukula kwa zosagwirizana zomwe akufuna kuchita.

   

  Akuluakuluwo adavomereza mogwirizana kufunikira kochitapo kanthu mwachangu kuti athane ndi kukakamiza kwachuma komwe kutsogozedwa ndi China ndipo adapempha kuti anthu onse ayankhe. Iwo apereka lingaliro la kuyesetsa kogwirizana pakati pa mayiko komwe kumakhudza kukulitsa kulimba mtima ndi kusiyanasiyana kwazinthu zogulitsira, kulimbikitsa kuwonekera poyera, ndikuwunika kuthekera kolepheretsa chuma chonse. Akuluakuluwo adatsindikanso kufunikira kwa yankho loyenera lomwe limaganizira zochitika zapadera zazochitika zilizonse, m'malo modalira njira yofanana, ndipo adagwirizana kuti magulu apadziko lonse ndi madera akhoza kugwira ntchito yofunika kwambiri. Kuyang'ana m'tsogolo, otsogolera adawona Msonkhano wa G7 womwe ukubwera ngati mwayi wowunikiranso njira zothanirana ndi kukakamiza kwachuma.