nkhani

Oga 16, 2023

Chaka chatha, vuto lamphamvu lomwe likupitilira ku Europe lidachititsa chidwi kwambiri. Kuyambira kuchiyambi kwa chaka chino, mitengo ya gasi yachilengedwe ku Europe yakhala yokhazikika.

Komabe, m’masiku aposachedwapa, pachitika opaleshoni yadzidzidzi. Kugunda kosayembekezereka komwe kungachitike ku Australia, komwe sikunachitikebe, kunayambitsa zosayembekezereka pamsika wamafuta achilengedwe akutali ku Europe, mtunda wamakilomita masauzande ambiri.

Zonse Chifukwa Chakumenyedwa?

M'masiku aposachedwa, mitengo yamafuta amafuta achilengedwe a TTF ku Europe pa mgwirizano womwe watsala pang'ono kutha awonetsa kusinthasintha kwakukulu. Mtengo wam'tsogolo, womwe udayamba pafupifupi ma euro 30 pa ola limodzi la megawati, udakwera kwakanthawi mpaka ma euro 43 pa ola limodzi la megawati pakuchita malonda, kufika pachimake kuyambira pakati pa Juni.

Mtengo womaliza womaliza unayima pa 39,7 euros, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa 28% pamtengo wotseka watsiku. Kusokonekera kwamitengoku kumabwera chifukwa cha mapulani onyanyala ogwira ntchito m'malo ena ofunikira a gasi wachilengedwe ku Australia.

Malinga ndi lipoti la "Australian Financial Review," 99% ya ogwira ntchito 180 omwe amagwira ntchito pa nsanja ya gasi yachilengedwe ya Woodside Energy ku Australia akugwirizana ndi zomwe zikuchitika. Ogwira ntchito akuyenera kupereka chidziwitso kwa masiku 7 asanayambe sitalaka. Zotsatira zake, malo opangira gasi wachilengedwe atha kutseka sabata yamawa.

Kuphatikiza apo, ogwira ntchito ku Chevron pa fakitale ya gasi yachilengedwe yakumaloko akuwopseza kuti anyanyala ntchito.Zinthu zonsezi zitha kulepheretsa kutumizidwa kunja kwa gasi wachilengedwe wochokera ku Australia. Kunena zoona, gasi wa ku Australia wosungunuka samayenda molunjika ku Ulaya; imagwira ntchito ngati ogulitsa ku Asia.

Komabe, kuwunika kukuwonetsa kuti ngati chakudya chochokera ku Australia chachepa, ogula aku Asia atha kuwonjezera kugula kwawo kwa gasi wachilengedwe wochokera ku United States ndi Qatar, mwazinthu zina, kutero kukulitsa mpikisano ndi Europe. Pa 10, mitengo ya gasi yachilengedwe ku Europe idatsika pang'ono, ndipo amalonda akupitilizabe kuwunika momwe zinthu zimakhudzira bearish ndi bullish.

EU Imawonjezera Malo Osungira Gasi Achilengedwe aku Ukraine

InEU, zokonzekera nyengo yozizira ya chaka chino zayamba molawirira. Kugwiritsa ntchito gasi m'nyengo yachisanu nthawi zambiri kumakhala kowirikiza kawiri kuposa m'chilimwe, ndipo malo osungiramo gasi ku EU akuyandikira 90% ya mphamvu zawo.

TMalo osungira gasi a EU atha kusunga mpaka ma kiyubiki mita 100 biliyoni, pomwe zofuna zapachaka za EU zimayambira pa 350 biliyoni mpaka ma kiyubiki mita 500 biliyoni. EU yapeza mwayi wokhazikitsa njira yosungira gasi ku Ukraine. Akuti maofesi aku Ukraine atha kupatsa EU mwayi wowonjezera wosungirako ma kiyubiki mita 10 biliyoni.

Deta ikuwonetsanso kuti mu Julayi, kuchuluka kwa mapaipi a gasi achilengedwe operekera gasi kuchokera ku EU kupita ku Ukraine adafika pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri pafupifupi zaka zitatu, ndipo akuyembekezeka kuwirikiza kawiri mwezi uno. Pamene EU ikuwonjezera malo ake osungira gasi, omwe ali m'mafakitale amanena kuti nyengo yozizirayi ingakhale yotetezeka kwambiri poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha.

Komabe, akuchenjezanso kuti mitengo ya gasi yachilengedwe ku Europe ikhoza kupitiliza kusinthasintha pazaka ziwiri kapena ziwiri zikubwerazi. CitiGroup ikulosera kuti ngati chochitika cha ku Australia chikayamba nthawi yomweyo ndikupitilira m'nyengo yozizira, zitha kupangitsa kuti mitengo ya gasi yachilengedwe ku Europe ichuluke kuwirikiza pafupifupi ma euro 62 pa ola la megawati mu Januware chaka chamawa.

Kodi China Idzakhudzidwa?

Ngati pali vuto ku Australia lomwe limakhudza mitengo ya gasi ku Europe, lingakhudzenso dziko lathu? Ngakhale kuti Australia ndiye ogulitsa kwambiri a LNG m'chigawo cha Asia-Pacific, mitengo ya gasi waku China yakhala ikuyenda bwino.

Malinga ndi deta yochokera ku National Bureau of Statistics, kuyambira pa July 31, mtengo wamsika wa gasi wachilengedwe (LNG) ku China unali 3,924.6 yuan pa tani, kuchepa kwa 45.25% kuchokera pachimake kumapeto kwa chaka chatha.

Bungwe la State Council Information Office linanena kale m'mawu achidule kuti mu theka loyamba la chaka, kupanga gasi wachilengedwe ku China komanso kutulutsa kunja kwakhala kukukulirakulira, ndikuwonetsetsa zofunikira za mabanja ndi mafakitale.

Malinga ndi ziwerengero zotumizira anthu, zomwe zikuoneka kuti gasi wachilengedwe ku China kwa theka loyamba la chaka zinali 194.9 biliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 6.7%. Chiyambireni chilimwe, kugwiritsa ntchito kwambiri gasi tsiku lililonse pakupangira magetsi kudaposa ma kiyubiki mita 250 miliyoni, kupereka chithandizo champhamvu pakupanga magetsi.

"Lipoti la China Natural Gas Development Report (2023)" lofalitsidwa ndi National Energy Administration likuwonetsa kuti chitukuko chonse cha msika wa gasi wachilengedwe ku China ndichokhazikika. Kuyambira Januwale mpaka June, kugwiritsa ntchito gasi wachilengedwe padziko lonse lapansi kunali 194.1 biliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka ndi 5.6%, pomwe kupanga gasi kunafika ma kiyubiki metres biliyoni 115.5, kuwonjezeka kwachaka ndi 5.4%.

M'dziko lathu, motengera momwe chuma chikuyendera komanso momwe mitengo ya gasi wachilengedwe imayendera m'dziko komanso padziko lonse lapansi, kuchuluka kwa gasi kukuyembekezeka kukweranso. Poyambirira akuti kugwiritsa ntchito gasi wachilengedwe ku China mchaka cha 2023 kudzakhala pakati pa 385 biliyoni ndi ma kiyubiki metres 390 biliyoni, ndikukula kwa chaka ndi 5.5% mpaka 7%. Kukula kumeneku kudzayendetsedwa makamaka ndi kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa gasi kumatauni komanso kugwiritsa ntchito gasi popangira magetsi.

Pomaliza, zikuwoneka kuti chochitikachi sichikhala ndi zotsatira zochepa pamitengo yamafuta achilengedwe ku China.