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Chikumi 21, 2023

WASHINGTON, DC - Kudzvinyirirwa kwehupfumi kwave rimwe rematambudziko akanyanya kumanikidza uye ari kukura pamamiriro ekunze nhasi, izvo zvakonzera kushushikana pamusoro pekukanganisa kungangoitika mukukura kwehupfumi hwenyika, hurongwa hwekutengeserana hwakavakirwa pamitemo, uye kuchengetedzwa kwenyika nekugadzikana. Chinowedzera nyaya iyi kuoma kwakatarisana nehurumende pasi rese, kunyanya nyika diki nepakati, mukupindura nematanho akadaro.

Nekuda kwedambudziko iri, Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) yakaita hurukuro yepamhepo “Counting Economic Coercion: Zvishandiso uye Strategies for Collective Action,” pana February 28th yakadzorwa naWendy Cutler, Mutevedzeri weMutungamiri weASPI; uye kuratidzaVictor Cha, Mutevedzeri Mukuru weMutungamiri weAsia neKorea Sachigaro paCentre for Strategic and International Studies;Melanie Hart, Mutevedzeri Mukuru weChina uye Indo-Pacific muHofisi yeMunyori weNyika weKukura Kwehupfumi, Simba, uye Zvakatipoteredza;Ryuichi Funatsu, Mutungamiriri weEconomic Security Policy Division kubazi rezvekunze reJapan; uyeMariko Togashi, Fellow Yekutsvagisa Yekuchengetedzwa kweJapan uye Defence Policy paInternational Institute for Strategic Studies.

Mibvunzo inotevera yakakurukurwa:

• Nyika dzingashanda sei pamwe chete kuti dzigadzirise dambudziko rekumanikidzwa kwehupfumi, uye nzira yekudzvinyirirwa kwehupfumi inogona kuitwa sei mumamiriro ezvinhu aya?
• Nyika dzingakunda sei kutya kudzoserwa kubva kuChina uye kushanda pamwe chete kukunda kutya kunopesana nematanho ayo ekumanikidza?
• Mitero inogona kunyatsogadzirisa kumanikidzwa kwehupfumi, uye ndeapi mamwe maturusi aripo?
• Ibasa ripi ringaitwa nemasangano epasi rose, akadai seWTO, OECD, neG7 mukudzivirira nekupikisa kumanikidzwa kwehupfumi?
  

  Collective Economic Deterrence

  Victor Chavakabvuma huipi hwenyaya yacho nezvainokanganisa. Iye akati, "Kumanikidzwa kwehupfumi hweChinese idambudziko chairo uye harisi kungotyisidzira kurongeka kwekutengeserana. Ityisidziro kugadziriro yakasununguka yenyika,” uye akawedzera, “Dziri kumanikidza nyika kuita zvisarudzo kana kuti kusaita zvisarudzo pamusoro pezvinhu zvisina chokuita nokutengeserana. Vane chekuita nezvinhu zvakaita sedemocracy muHong Kong, kodzero dzevanhu muXinjiang, zvinhu zvakasiyana zvakasiyana. Achitaura chinyorwa chake chachangobva kubuda muZvekune dzimwe nyikas magazini, akakurudzira kukosha kwekudzivisa kumanikidzwa kwakadaro, uye akatanga nzira ye "collective resilience," iyo inosanganisira kuziva nyika dzakawanda dziri pasi pekumanikidzirwa kwehupfumi hweChina zvakare kutumira zvinhu kuChina iyo inotsamira zvakanyanya. Cha akapokana kuti kutyisidzira kwekuita pamwe chete, se "Chisungo 5 chekuita kwehupfumi hwakabatana," inogona kukwidza mutengo uye kudzivirira "kudheerera kwehupfumi hweChinese uye kushandisa zvombo zveChinese kudyidzana." Zvakadaro, vatendawo kuti kuita kwakadai kwezvematongerwo enyika kunonetsa.

  Melanie Hartakatsanangura kuti zviitiko zvekumanikidza kwehupfumi uye kukakavara kwemauto kwakasiyana, uye kumanikidza kwehupfumi kunowanzoitika mu "grey zone," achiwedzera, "Ivo nekugadzira kwete pachena. Zvakavanzwa nemagadzirirwo. " Tichifunga kuti Beijing kashoma kubvuma kushandiswa kwayo kwematanho ekutengesa sechombo uye pachinzvimbo ichishandisa nzira dzekubiridzira, akadzokorora kuti zvakakosha kuunza pachena uye kufumura maitiro aya. Hart akasimbisawo kuti mamiriro akakodzera ndeekuti munhu wese anotsiga uye anogona kutenderera kune vatsva vekutengesa pamwe nemisika, zvichiita kuti kumanikidza kwehupfumi kuve "chisiri chiitiko."

  Kuedza Kurwisa Kumanikidzwa Kwehupfumi

  Melanie Hartyakagovana maonero ehurumende yeUS iyo Washington inoona kumanikidza kwehupfumi sekutyisidzira kuchengetedzeka kwenyika uye kurongeka kwakavakirwa pamitemo. Akawedzera kuti US yanga ichiwedzera kupatsanurwa kweketani uye kupa rutsigiro nekukurumidza kune vanobatana uye vanobatana vakatarisana nekumanikidzwa kwehupfumi, sezvakaratidzwa murubatsiro rweUS kuLithuania. Akacherekedza rutsigiro rwebipartisan muUS Congress pakugadzirisa nyaya iyi, uye akati mutero unogona kunge usiri iwo mhinduro yakanaka. Hart akakurudzira kuti nzira yakafanira yaizosanganisira kuedza kwakabatana nenyika dzakasiyana siyana, asi mhinduro inogona kusiyana zvichienderana nezvinhu kana misika inobatanidzwa. Naizvozvo, akapokana kuti chinotariswa chiri pakutsvaga chakanakira mamiriro ega ega, pane kuvimba nenzira yehukuru-hunoenderana-yese.

  Mariko Togashiyakakurukura ruzivo rweJapan nekumanikidzwa kwehupfumi kubva kuChina pamusoro pezvicherwa zvisingawanzoitiki, uye yakaratidza kuti Japan yakakwanisa kuderedza kuvimba kwayo neChina kubva pa90 muzana kusvika 60 muzana mumakore anosvika gumi kuburikidza nekuvandudzwa kwemichina. Nekudaro, akabvumawo kuti 60% kuvimba ichiri chipingamupinyi chikuru chekukunda. Togashi akasimbisa kukosha kwekusiyana-siyana, rutsigiro rwemari, uye kugovana ruzivo kudzivirira kumanikidzwa kwehupfumi. Ndichiri kuratidza kutarisisa kweJapan o kuwana kuzvitonga uye kukosha kwekuwedzera simba uye kudzikisira kutsamira kune dzimwe nyika, akapokana kuti kuwana kuzvitonga kuzere hazvigoneke kune chero nyika, zvichida mhinduro yakabatana, uye akati, "Kuedza kwenyika kwakakosha. asi nekupihwa zvisingakwanisi, ndinofunga kuwana kuzvitonga nenyika dzine pfungwa dzakafanana kwakakosha. "

  Kutaura neEconomic Coercion kuG7

   

  Ryuichi Funatsuvakagovera maonero ehurumende yeJapan, vachicherechedza kuti musoro wacho uchava chimwe chezvinhu zvinokosha zvichakurukurwa paMusangano weVatungamiriri veG7, unotungamirirwa neJapan gore rino. VaFunatsu vakataura mutauro weG7 Leaders' Communique pamusoro pekumanikidza kwehupfumi kubva muna 2022, "Tichawedzera kusvinurira kwedu kutyisidzira, kusanganisira kumanikidza kwehupfumi, izvo zvinoitirwa kukanganisa kuchengetedzwa kwenyika nekugadzikana. Kuti izvi zviitike, tichatsvaga kushandira pamwe nekuongorora nzira dzekuvandudza ongororo, kugadzirira, kudzivirira, uye kupindura kune njodzi dzakadai, tichitora pane yakanakisa maitiro ekugadzirisa kuratidzwa kwese nekupfuura kweG7, ”uye vakati Japan ichatora mutauro uyu se. gwara rekufambira mberi gore rino. Akataurawo nezve basa remasangano epasi rese seOECD mu "kusimudzira ruzivo rwepasirese," uye akataura mushumo weASPI muna 2021 wakanzi,Kupindura kune Trade Coercion, iyo yakaratidza kuti OECD igadzirise zvinyorwa zvezviyero zvekumanikidzira uye kumisa dhatabhesi kuitira kuti zvive pachena.

   

  Mukupindura kune izvo vanyori vanoda kuona semhedzisiro kubva kuG7 Summit yegore rino,Victor Chaakati, "nhaurirano nezve zano rinozadzisa kana kuwedzera kudzikisira nekusimba kwakatarisa kuti nhengo dzeG7 dzingashandire sei maererano nekusaina imwe nzira yekudzvinyirirwa kwehupfumi," nekuratidza kutsamira kwakanyanya kweChina pazvinhu zveumbozha uye zvepakati. Mariko Togashi akatsinhira kuti anotarisira kuona imwe budiriro uye nhaurirano yezvekuita pamwe chete, uye akasimbisa kukosha kwekubvuma mutsauko wezvimiro zvehupfumi nemaindasitiri pakati penyika kuti vawane zvinowirirana uye kuti vaone kukura kwekubvumirana kwavanoda kuita.

   

  Vamiriri vedare vakabvumirana kudiwa kwechimbichimbi kutarisana nekumanikidzwa kwehupfumi kunotungamirwa neChina uye vakadaidzira mhinduro pamwe chete. Vakurudzira kuedza kwakarongeka pakati penyika kunosanganisira kuwedzera kusimba uye kusiyanisa kwekutengesa, kukurudzira kubuda pachena, uye kuongorora mukana wekukanganisa hupfumi hwenyika. Vamiriri vedare vakasimbisawo kudiwa kwemhinduro yakarongeka inotarisa mamiriro akasiyana emamiriro ega ega, pane kuvimba nemaitiro akaenzana, uye vakabvumirana kuti mapoka epasi rese nematunhu anogona kuita basa rakakosha. Tichitarisa kumberi, vatori venhau vakaona G7 Summit iri kuuya semukana wekuenderera mberi nekuongorora nzira dzekupindura pamwe chete pakurwisa kumanikidzwa kwehupfumi.