iindaba

Agasti 2, 2023

Iindlela zaseYurophu ekugqibeleni zenze ukuphindeka okukhulu kumazinga omthwalo, anyuke nge-31.4% kwiveki enye. Imirhumo yeTransatlantic nayo inyuke nge-10.1% (ifikelele kunyuso lulonke lwama-38% kuyo yonke inyanga kaJulayi). Oku kunyuka kwexabiso kuye kwaba negalelo kwi-Index yaseShailand Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) yakutshanje inyuka nge-6.5% ukuya kwi-1029.23 amaphuzu, ibuyisela inqanaba elingaphezulu kwamanqaku e-1000. Lo mkhwa wangoku wokuthengisa unokubonwa njengembonakalo yangethuba yeenzame zeenkampani zokuthumela ngenqanawa zokunyusa amaxabiso eendlela zaseYurophu naseMelika ngo-Agasti.

Abangaphakathi babonisa ukuba ngokukhula komthamo olinganiselweyo wempahla eYurophu nase-United States kunye notyalo-mali oluqhubekayo kumthamo owongezelelweyo wokuthumela, iinkampani zokuthumela ngenqanawa sele zisondele kumda wokuhamba ngeenqanawa ezingenanto kunye neeshedyuli ezincitshisiweyo. Ukuba bayakwazi ukugcina ukunyuka kwamaxabiso othutho kwiveki yokuqala ka-Agasti kuya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo yokuqwalaselwa.

Ngomhla woku-1 ku-Agasti, iinkampani zokuthutha zimiselwe ukuvumelanisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiindlela zaseYurophu nezaseMelika. Phakathi kwabo, kwindlela yaseYurophu, iinkampani ezintathu ezinkulu zokuthutha i-Maersk, i-CMA CGM, kunye ne-Hapag-Lloyd zikhokela indlela ekulungiseleleni ukunyuka okubalulekileyo. Ngokutsho kolwazi oluvela kubathumeli bempahla, bafumana iingcaphuno zamva nje kwi-27, ebonisa ukuba indlela ye-transatlantic ilindeleke ukuba inyuke nge-$ 250-400 nge-TEU (i-Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit), ijolise kwi-2000-3000 yeedola kwi-TEU ye-US West Coast. kunye ne-US East Coast ngokulandelelanayo. Kwindlela yaseYurophu, baceba ukunyusa amaxabiso nge-400-500 yeedola nge-TEU nganye, ejonge ukonyuka ukuya kwi-1600 yeedola nge-TEU nganye.

Iingcali zoshishino zikholelwa ukuba owona mgangatho wokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokuba linokugcinwa ixesha elingakanani kuya kujongwa ngokusondeleyo kwiveki yokuqala ka-Agasti. Ngenani elikhulu leenqanawa ezitsha eziziswayo, iinkampani zokuthutha ziza kujongana nemingeni ebalulekileyo. Nangona kunjalo, intshukumo yenkokeli yoshishino, iNkampani yoShishino lweMeditera, ethe yafumana ukunyuka okumangalisayo kwamandla nge-12.2% kwisiqingatha sokuqala salo nyaka, nayo ibekwe iliso elibukhali.
Njengohlaziyo lwamva nje, nantsi amanani eShanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI):

I-Transpacific Route (US West Coast): I-Shanghai ukuya e-US West Coast: i-$ 1943 nge-FEU nganye (i-Forty-foot Equivalent Unit), ukunyuka kwe-$ 179 okanye i-10.15%.

Umzila weTranspacific (i-US East Coast): I-Shanghai ukuya e-US East Coast: i-$ 2853 nge-FEU nganye, ukunyuka kwe-$ 177 okanye i-6.61%.

Indlela yaseYurophu: I-Shanghai ukuya eYurophu: i-$ 975 nge-TEU (i-Unit Equivalent Unit Unit), ukwanda kwe-$ 233 okanye i-31.40%.

I-Shanghai ukuya kwiMeditera: i-$ 1503 nganye ye-TEU, ukunyuka kwe-$ 96 okanye i-6.61%. I-Persian Gulf Route: Ixabiso lempahla yi-$ 839 nge-TEU nganye, ifumana ukuhla okukhulu kwe-10.6% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elidlulileyo.

Ngokutsho kweShailand Shipping Exchange, imfuno yezothutho iye yahlala kwinqanaba eliphezulu, kunye nebhalansi efanelekileyo yokubonelela-imfuno, ekhokelela ekunyukeni okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso emarike. Kwindlela yaseYurophu, nangona i-eurozone ye-preliminary Markit Composite PMI yehla ukuya kwi-48.9 ngoJulayi, ebonisa imingeni yezoqoqosho, imfuno yokuthutha ibonise ukusebenza kakuhle, kwaye iinkampani zokuthutha ziye zasebenzisa izicwangciso zokunyuka kwexabiso, ziqhuba ukunyuka okukhulu kwexabiso kwimarike.

Njengohlaziyo lwamva nje, amaxabiso omthwalo wendlela yaseMzantsi Melika (i-Santos) yi- $2513 nge-TEU nganye, efumana ukwehla kweveki ngeedola ezingama-67 okanye i-2.60%. Kwindlela ye-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia (eSingapore), isantya somthwalo yi-$ 143 nge-TEU nganye, kunye nokuhla kweedola ze-6 okanye i-4.30 ngeveki.

Kuyaphawuleka ukuba xa kuthelekiswa namaxabiso e-SCFI ngoJuni 30, amaxabiso eNdlela yeTranspacific (i-US West Coast) yanda nge-38%, i-Transpacific Route (i-US East Coast) yanda nge-20.48%, indlela yaseYurophu yanda nge-27.79%, kwaye indlela yeMeditera inyuke nge-2.52%. Ukonyuka kwesantya okubalulekileyo okungaphezulu kwe-20-30% kwiindlela eziphambili zoNxweme lwase-US oluseMpuma, kuNxweme oluseNtshona lwase-US, naseYurophu lugqithise kakhulu isalathisi seSCFI sisonke sokunyuka nge-7.93%.

Ishishini likholelwa ukuba oku kunyuka kuqhutywa ngokupheleleyo kukuzimisela kweenkampani zokuthumela ngenqanawa. Ishishini lokuthumela ngenqanawa lifumana incopho yokuhanjiswa kweenqanawa ezintsha, kunye nokuqokelelwa okuqhubekayo komthamo omtsha ukusukela ngoMatshi, kunye nerekhodi ephezulu ephantse ibe yi-300,000 ye-TEUs yomthamo omtsha ongezwe kwihlabathi liphela ngoJuni kuphela. NgoJulayi, nangona kukho ukunyuka okuthe ngcembe kumthamo wempahla e-United States kunye nokuphucuka okuthile eYurophu, umthamo ogqithisiweyo uhlala unzima ukugaywa, okukhokelela kukungalingani kwemfuno yokubonelela. Iinkampani zokuthumela ngenqanawe bezizinzisa amaxabiso omthwalo ngokuhamba ngeenqanawa ezingenanto kunye neeshedyuli ezincitshisiweyo. Amahemuhemu acebisa ukuba isantya sangoku sokuhamba ngenqanawa sisondela kwindawo ebaluleke kakhulu, ngakumbi kwiindlela zaseYurophu ezineenqanawa ezininzi ze-TEU ezingama-20,000 eziqaliswe.

Abathumeli bempahla bakhankanye ukuba iinqanawa ezininzi azikalayishwa ngokupheleleyo ekupheleni kukaJulayi nasekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, kwaye ukuba iinkampani zokuthutha nge-1 ka-Agasti ukunyuka kwexabiso kunokumelana nakuphi na ukuhla kuya kuxhomekeka ekubeni kukho isivumelwano phakathi kweenkampani zokuncama amaxabiso okulayisha kunye. ngokudibeneyo ukugcina amaxabiso omthwalo.

Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, kuye kwakho ukunyuka kwesantya sokuhamba ngeendlela ezininzi kwindlela yeTranspacific (i-US ukuya e-Asiya). NgoJulayi, ukunyuka okuyimpumelelo kunye nozinzile kwaphunyezwa ngezinto ezahlukeneyo, kubandakanywa ukuhamba ngeenqanawa ezingenanto, ukubuyiswa komthamo wempahla, ugwayimbo lwe-port yaseCanada, kunye nesiphumo sokuphela kwenyanga.

Ishishini lokuthumela ngenqanawa libonisa ukuba ukuhla okubonakalayo kumazinga omthwalo kwindlela yeTranspacific kwixesha elidlulileyo, esondele okanye ewela ngaphantsi kwexabiso leendleko, yomeleza ukuzimisela kweenkampani zokuthutha ukunyusa amaxabiso. Ukongeza, ngexesha lokhuphiswano olumandla kunye namazinga aphantsi othutho kwindlela yeTranspacific, iinkampani ezininzi zeenqanawa ezincinci kunye neziphakathi kwaye zanyanzeliswa ukuba ziphume kwimarike, zizinzisa amaxabiso omthwalo endleleni. Njengoko umthamo wemithwalo usanda kancinci kwindlela yeTranspacific ngoJuni nangoJulayi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwaphunyezwa ngempumelelo.

Ukulandela le mpumelelo, iinkampani zenqanawa zaseYurophu ziphindaphinda amava kwindlela yaseYurophu. Nangona kukho ukonyuka komthamo wempahla kwindlela yaseYurophu kutsha nje, uhlala ulinganiselwe, kwaye uzinzo lokunyuka kwesantya kuya kuxhomekeka kubonelelo lwemarike kunye namandla emfuno.
I-WCI yamva nje (i-World Container Index)ukusuka kwi-Drewry ibonisa ukuba i-GRI (i-General Rate Increase), ugwayimbo lwe-port yaseCanada, kunye nokunciphisa umthamo kuye kwaba nefuthe elithile kwindlela yeTranspacific (i-US ukuya e-Asia) imithwalo yempahla. Iindlela zamva nje ze-WCI zimi ngolu hlobo lulandelayo: I-Shanghai ukuya e-Los Angeles (i-Transpacific US West Coast indlela) izinga lomthwalo liphule uphawu lwe-$ 2000 kwaye lihlala kwi-$ 2072. Lo mlinganiselo wagqityelwa ukubonwa kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezidlulileyo.

I-Shanghai ukuya eNew York (i-Transpacific US East Coast route) izinga lokuthuthwa kwempahla nalo ligqithise uphawu lwe-$3000, linyuke nge-5% ukuya kutsho kwi-3049 yeedola. Oku kubeka inqanaba elitsha leenyanga ezintandathu.

Iindlela zeTranspacific zase-US East kunye ne-US West Coast zibe negalelo ekunyukeni kwe-2.5% kwi-Drewry World Container Index (WCI), efikelela kwi-1576 yeedola. Kwiiveki ezintathu ezidlulileyo, i-WCI inyuke nge-$ 102, emele ukunyuka kwe-7%.

Ezi nkcukacha zibonisa ukuba izinto zamva nje, ezifana ne-GRI, isiteleka se-port yaseKhanada, kunye nokunciphisa umthamo, kuphembelele amaxabiso okuthutha umzila weTranspacific, okukhokelela ekunyuseni kwamaxabiso kunye nokuzinza okuhambelanayo.

Ngokwezibalo zika-Alphaliner, ishishini lokuthumela ngenqanawa lifumana amaza okuhanjiswa kweenqanawa ezintsha, malunga ne-30 ye-TEU yenqanawa yomthamo wenqanawa eziswe kwihlabathi liphela ngoJuni, iphawula irekhodi eliphezulu kwinyanga enye. Iinqanawa ezingama-29 zizonke zaziswa, phantse inqanawa enye ngosuku. Indlela yokwandisa umthamo omtsha weenqanawa iqhubekile ukususela ngo-Matshi kulo nyaka kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ihlale kumazinga aphezulu kulo nyaka wonke kunye nolandelayo.

Idatha evela kuClarkson ikwabonisa ukuba kwisiqingatha sokuqala salo nyaka, iyonke yeenqanawa ze-container ze-147 ezinomthamo we-975,000 TEU zahanjiswa, ezibonisa ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-129%. UClarkson uqikelela ukuba umthamo wokuhanjiswa kweenqanawa kwihlabathi liphela uya kufikelela kwi-2 yezigidi ze-TEU kulo nyaka, kwaye ishishini liqikelela ukuba ixesha lokuziswa kweenqanawa linokuqhubeka kude kube ngu-2025.

Phakathi kwezona nkampani zilishumi ziphezulu zokuthumela iikhonteyina kwihlabathi jikelele, ukukhula komthamo ophezulu kwisiqingatha sokuqala salo nyaka kuphunyezwe yiYang Ming Marine Transport, ibekwe kwindawo yeshumi, ngokunyuka nge-13.3%. Ukukhula komthamo okwesibini okona kuphezulu kwaphunyezwa yiNkampani yoShishino lweMeditera (MSC), ibekwe kwindawo yokuqala, ngokunyuka nge-12.2%. Ukukhula komthamo wesithathu okuphezulu kubonwe nguNippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (Umgca we-NYK), ubekwe kwindawo yesixhenxe, kunye nokunyuka kwe-7.5%. I-Evergreen Marine Corporation, nangona isakha iinqanawa ezininzi ezintsha, ibone ukukhula nge-0.7% kuphela. Umthamo wezoThutho zaseLwandle iYang Ming wehle nge-0.2%, kwaye iMaersk ifumene ukuhla nge-2.1%. Ishishini liqikelela ukuba iikhontrakthi ezininzi zokuqesha iinqanawa zisenokuba ziye zayekiswa.

ISIPHELO