iindaba

Nge-16 ka-Agasti, ngo-2023

Kunyaka ophelileyo, ingxaki yamandla eqhubekayo ehlasela iYurophu yafumana ingqwalasela ebanzi. Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, amaxabiso erhasi yendalo yaseYurophu ahlala ezinzile.

Nangona kunjalo, kwiintsuku zamva nje, kuye kwakho utyando ngequbuliso. Uqhankqalazo olungalindelekanga olunokwenzeka e-Australia, olungekenzeki, lubangele iziphumo ezingalindelekanga kwimarike yegesi yendalo yaseYurophu ekude, kumawaka eemayile kude.

Konke Kungenxa Yoqhankqalazo?

Kwiintsuku zamva nje, intsingiselo yexabiso ye-TTF ye-TTF yerhasi yendalo yexesha elizayo kwikhontrakthi yenyanga ekufutshane ibonise ukuguquguquka okubalulekileyo. Ixabiso lekamva, eliqale malunga ne-30 yee-euro nge-megawatt-yure nganye, linyuke okwexeshana laya kutsho ngaphezulu kwe-43 yee-euro nge-megawathi ngeyure ngexesha lorhwebo, lafikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu ukusukela phakathi kuJuni.

Ixabiso lokugqibela lokuhlawula limi kwi-39.7 euro, ephawula ukunyuka okukhulu kwe-28% kwixabiso lokuvala losuku. Ukuguquguquka okubukhali kwexabiso kubalelwa ikakhulu kwizicwangciso zogwayimbo lwabasebenzi kwezinye iindawo ezibalulekileyo zerhasi yendalo enyibilikisiweyo eOstreliya.

Ngokwengxelo evela kwi-"Australian Financial Review," i-99% yabasebenzi bemveliso be-180 kwiqonga legesi yendalo eyenziwe ngulwelo ye-Woodside Energy e-Australia bayalixhasa inyathelo logwayimbo. Abasebenzi kufuneka banike isaziso seentsuku ezi-7 phambi kokuba baqalise ugwayimbo. Ngenxa yoko, umzi-mveliso werhasi yendalo enyibilikisiweyo unokuvalwa kwangoko kwiveki ezayo.

Ngaphaya koko, abasebenzi bakwaChevron kumzi-mveliso werhasi yendalo enyibilikisiweyo yasekuhlaleni nabo bagrogrisa ngokungenela ugwayimbo.Zonke ezi zinto zinokuthintela ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwerhasi yendalo engamanzi evela eOstreliya. Enyanisweni, irhasi yendalo enyibilikisiweyo yase-Australia ayifane iqukuqelele ngqo eYurophu; ikakhulu isebenza njengomthengisi eAsia.

Nangona kunjalo, uhlalutyo lucebisa ukuba unikezelo oluvela e-Australia luyancipha, abathengi base-Asia banokunyusa ukuthenga kwabo igesi yendalo engamanzi evela e-United States naseQatar, phakathi kweminye imithombo, ngaloo ndlela beqinisa ukhuphiswano neYurophu. Ngomhla we-10, amaxabiso egesi yendalo yaseYurophu afumana ukuhla kancinci, kwaye abahwebi bayaqhubeka nokuvavanya impembelelo ye-bearish kunye ne-bullish.

I-EU Yonyusa iGesi yeNdalo yaseUkraine

InEU, amalungiselelo obusika balo nyaka sele eqalisile kwangethuba. Ukusetyenziswa kwerhasi ngexesha lasebusika kuphindwe kabini kunasehlotyeni, kwaye oovimba berhasi yendalo be-EU ngoku bakufutshane ne-90% yomthamo wabo.

TIndawo yokugcina irhasi yendalo ye-EU inokugcina ukuya kuthi ga kwi-100 billion cubic metres, ngelixa imfuno yonyaka ye-EU isukela malunga nama-350 eebhiliyoni zee-cubic metres ukuya kuma-500 eebhiliyoni zee-cubic metres. I-EU ichonge ithuba lokuseka indawo yokugcina igesi yendalo enobuchule eUkraine. Kuxelwa ukuba izibonelelo zase-Ukraine zinokubonelela nge-EU ngomthamo owongezelelweyo wokugcina i-10 billion cubic metres.

Idatha ibonisa kwakhona ukuba ngoJulayi, umthamo ogciniweyo wemibhobho yegesi yendalo ehambisa igesi esuka kwi-EU ukuya e-Ukraine ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu malunga neminyaka emithathu, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba iphindwe kabini kule nyanga. Njengoko i-EU inyusa oovimba begesi yendalo, abangaphakathi kwishishini bacebisa ukuba obu busika bunokuba bukhuseleke kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka odlulileyo.

Nangona kunjalo, bakwalumkisa ukuba amaxabiso erhasi yendalo yaseYurophu angaqhubeka eguquguquka kulo nyaka ukuya kwiminyaka emibini ezayo. I-CitiGroup iqikelela ukuba ukuba uqhankqalazo lwase-Australia luqala ngokukhawuleza kwaye ludlulele ebusika, lunokubangela ukuba amaxabiso erhasi yendalo yaseYurophu aphindeke kabini ukuya kuma-euro angama-62 nge-megawatt-yure nganye ngoJanuwari kulo nyaka uzayo.

Ngaba iTshayina iza kuchaphazeleka?

Ukuba kukho ingxaki eOstreliya echaphazela amaxabiso erhasi yendalo yaseYurophu, ingaba inokuchaphazela nelizwe lethu? Ngelixa i-Australia ingoyena mboneleli mkhulu we-LNG kummandla we-Asia-Pasifiki, amaxabiso erhasi yendalo yasekhaya yase-China ebeqhuba kakuhle.

Ngokutsho kwedatha evela kwi-National Bureau of Statistics, ukususela nge-31 kaJulayi, ixabiso lemarike yegesi yendalo engamanzi (LNG) e-China yayiyi-3,924.6 ye-yuan ngetoni nganye, ukuhla kwe-45.25% ukusuka kwincopho ekupheleni konyaka odlulileyo.

I-Ofisi yeNgcaciso yeBhunga loMbuso ngaphambili yatsho kwinkcazo yomgaqo-nkqubo oqhelekileyo ukuba kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, imveliso yerhasi yendalo yaseTshayina kunye nokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe zombini zigcine ukukhula okuzinzileyo, ziqinisekisa ngokufanelekileyo iimfuno zamakhaya kunye nemizi-mveliso.

Ngokwezibalo zokuthunyelwa, ukusetyenziswa kwerhasi yendalo ebonakalayo e-China kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka kwakuyi-194.9 yeebhiliyoni zee-cubic metres, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-6.7%. Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwehlobo, ukusetyenziswa kwerhasi ephezulu yemihla ngemihla ukuvelisa amandla kudlule kwi-250 yezigidi ze-cubic metres, kubonelela ngenkxaso eyomeleleyo yokuveliswa kombane.

I "China Natural Gas Development Report (2023)" epapashwe yiNational Energy Administration ibonisa ukuba lonke uphuhliso lwemarike yegesi yendalo yaseChina izinzile. Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJuni, ukusetyenziswa kwerhasi yendalo yesizwe bekuyi-194.1 billion cubic metres, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka nge-5.6%, ngelixa imveliso yegesi yendalo ifikelele kwi-115.5 billion cubic metres, ukunyuka konyaka ngonyaka nge-5.4%.

Ekhaya, ngokuphenjelelwa ziimeko zoqoqosho kunye neentsingiselo zamaxabiso erhasi yendalo yasekhaya neyamazwe ngamazwe, imfuno ilindeleke ukuba iqhubeleke ukuphindaphindeka. Kuqikelelwa kwangaphambili ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwerhasi yendalo yesizwe yaseTshayina ngo-2023 kuya kuba phakathi kwama-385 eebhiliyoni zee-cubic metres kunye ne-390 yeebhiliyoni zee-cubic metres, kunye nesantya sokukhula sonyaka-kwi-5.5% ukuya kwi-7%. Oku kukhula kuya kuqhutywa ikakhulu kukusetyenziswa kwerhasi yasezidolophini nokusetyenziswa kwerhasi ukuvelisa umbane.

Ukuqukumbela, kubonakala ngathi esi siganeko siya kuba nefuthe elilinganiselweyo kumaxabiso erhasi yendalo yaseTshayina.