izindaba

Juni 21, 2023

WASHINGTON, DC – Ukuphoqwa kwezomnotho sekuphenduke enye yezinselelo ezicindezela kakhulu nezikhulayo emhlabeni jikelele namuhla, okuye kwaphakamisa ukukhathazeka mayelana nomonakalo ongase ube khona ekukhuleni komnotho wezwe, uhlelo lokuhweba olusekelwe emithethweni, kanye nokuphepha nokuzinza kwamazwe ngamazwe. Okwengeza lolu daba ubunzima ohulumeni emhlabeni wonke, ikakhulukazi amazwe amancane naphakathi nendawo, ekuphenduleni ngempumelelo ezinyathelweni ezinjalo.

Ngenxa yale nselelo, i-Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) isingathe ingxoxo nge-inthanethi “Ukulwa Nokuphoqwa Kwezomnotho: Amathuluzi Namasu Okwenza Ngokuhlanganyela,” ngomhla zingama-28 kuNhlolanja iphethwe nguWendy Cutler, IPhini likaMongameli we-ASPI; nokufakaUVictor Cha, Iphini Likamongameli Omkhulu we-Asia kanye noSihlalo wase-Korea Esikhungweni Sezifundo Zesu Nezamazwe Ngamazwe;Melanie Hart, Umeluleki Omkhulu wase-China kanye ne-Indo-Pacific eHhovisi likaNobhala Ongaphansi Wombuso Wokukhula Komnotho, Amandla, kanye Nezemvelo;Ryuichi Funatsu, Umqondisi Wophiko Lwenqubomgomo Yokuphepha Komnotho ku-Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan; futhiMariko Togashi, Umuntu Wokucwaninga Ngenqubomgomo Yezokuphepha Nezokuvikela YaseJapane e-International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Kwaxoxwa ngemibuzo elandelayo:

• Amazwe angasebenzisana kanjani ukubhekana nenselele yokuphoqwa kwezomnotho, futhi lingenziwa kanjani isu lokuvinjelwa komnotho ngokuhlanganyela kulo mongo?
• Amazwe angakunqoba kanjani ukwesaba ukuphindiselwa okuvela eShayina futhi asebenze ngokubambisana ukuze anqobe ukwesaba ngokumelene nezinyathelo zawo zokuphoqelela?
• Ingabe amanani entela angabhekana ngempumelelo nokuphoqwa kwezomnotho, futhi imaphi amanye amathuluzi atholakalayo?
• Iyiphi indima izikhungo zamazwe ngamazwe, njenge-WTO, i-OECD, ne-G7, ezingabamba iqhaza ekuvimbeleni nasekulweni nokuphoqwa kwezomnotho?
  

  I-Collective Economic Deterrence

  UVictor Chaivume ubunzima bodaba nemithelela yalo elimazayo. Uthe, “Ukuphoqwa kwezomnotho eChina kuyinkinga yangempela futhi akulona nje usongo ohlelweni lokuhweba olukhululekile. Kuwusongo ohlelweni olukhululekile lwamazwe ngamazwe,” futhi wanezela, “Baphoqa amazwe ukuthi enze izinqumo noma angakhethi ngezinto ezingahlangene nokuhweba. Bahlobene nezinto ezifana nentando yeningi eHong Kong, amalungelo abantu eXinjiang, izinto ezihlukahlukene ezihlukahlukene.” Ecaphuna ushicilelo lwakhe lwakamuva kuIndaba Yangaphandles, wakhuthaza isidingo sokunqanda ukuphoqelelwa okunjalo, futhi wethula isu “lokuqina ngokubambisana,” okubandakanya ukuqaphela amazwe amaningi angaphansi kokucindezelwa komnotho waseShayina futhi athumela izinto eShayina ethembele kakhulu kuyo. U-Cha wagomela ngokuthi usongo lokuthatha isinyathelo ngokuhlanganyela, "njenge-Article 5 yezenzo zezomnotho ezihlangene," kungase kukhuphule izindleko futhi kuvimbele "ubuxhwanguxhwangu bomnotho waseShayina kanye nezikhali zaseShayina zokusebenzelana." Kodwa-ke, ubuye wavuma ukuthi ukuba nokwenzeka kwezepolitiki kwesenzo esinjalo kuzoba yinselelo.

  Melanie Hartwachaza ukuthi izimo zokuphoqelelwa kwezomnotho kanye nezingxabano zezempi yizimo ezihlukene, futhi ukuphoqelelwa kwezomnotho kuvame ukwenzeka "endaweni empunga," wengeza, "Ngokuklama akubonakali obala. Zifihliwe ngomklamo.” Njengoba kunikezwe ukuthi iBeijing ayivamisile ukuvuma obala ukusetshenziswa kwayo kwezinyathelo zokuhweba njengesikhali futhi esikhundleni salokho isebenzisa amaqhinga e-obfuscation, ukugcizelele ukuthi kubalulekile ukuletha obala nokudalula la maqhinga. U-Hart uphinde wagqamisa ukuthi isimo esikahle yileso lapho wonke umuntu ekwazi ukumelana naso futhi angaphendukela kubalingani abasha abahwebayo nezimakethe, okwenza ukuphoqwa kwezomnotho kube “okungewona umcimbi.”

  Imizamo Yokulwa Nokuphoqwa Kwezomnotho

  Melanie Hartwabelane ngemibono kahulumeni wase-US ukuthi iWashington ibheka ukuphoqelelwa kwezomnotho njengosongo ekuvikelekeni kwezwe kanye nokuhleleka okusekelwe emithethweni. Ubuye wengeza ukuthi i-US ibilokhu ikhulisa ukuhlukahluka kwe-supply chain futhi ihlinzeka ukwesekwa okusheshayo kubalingani nabalingani ababhekene nokuphoqwa kwezomnotho, njengoba kubonakala osizweni lwakamuva lwase-US oluya eLithuania. Uphawule ukwesekwa kwe-bipartisan kuCongress yaseMelika ekubhekaneni nalolu daba, futhi wathi amanani entengo angahle angabi yisixazululo esingcono kakhulu. U-Hart uphakamise ukuthi indlela elungile izobandakanya umzamo ohlanganisiwe wezizwe ezihlukahlukene, kodwa impendulo ingase ihluke kuye ngezimpahla ezithile noma izimakethe ezihilelekile. Ngakho-ke, wagomela ngokuthi okugxilwe kakhulu ekutholeni okulingana kahle kakhulu nesimo ngasinye, kunokuncika endleleni yokulinganisa usayizi owodwa.

  Mariko Togashiixoxe ngesipiliyoni seJapan ngokuphoqwa kwezomnotho okuvela eChina mayelana nezimbiwa zomhlaba eziyivelakancane, futhi yaveza ukuthi iJapan ikwazile ukwehlisa ukuthembela kwayo eChina ukusuka kumaphesenti angama-90 kuya kumaphesenti angama-60 eminyakeni engaba ngu-10 ngokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe. Kodwa-ke, uphinde wavuma ukuthi ukuncika kuka-60% kuseyisithiyo esikhulu okufanele sinqobe. UTogashi ugcizelele ukubaluleka kokuhlukahluka, ukwesekwa ngokwezimali, nokwabelana ngolwazi ukuze kuvinjelwe ukuphoqwa kwezomnotho. Ngenkathi eqokomisa ukugxila kweJapan o ukuzuza ukuzimela okunesu kanye nokubalulekile ukuze kwandiswe amandla kanye nokunciphisa ukuncika kwamanye amazwe, waphikisa ngokuthi ukuzuza ukuzimela okuphelele kwamasu akunakwenzeka kunoma yiliphi izwe, okudinga impendulo ehlangene, futhi waphawula, "Umzamo wezinga lezwe ubalulekile impela, kodwa uma kubhekwa imikhawulo, ngicabanga ukuthi kubalulekile ukuzuza ukuzimela okunamasu namazwe anomqondo ofanayo.”

  Sikhuluma Nezimpoqo Ezomnotho kwa-G7

   

  Ryuichi Funatsuwabelane ngombono kahulumeni waseJapane, ephawula ukuthi isihloko sizoba ngenye yezinto ezibalulekile okuzoxoxwa ngazo eMhlanganweni Wabaholi Be-G7, oholwa yiJapane kulo nyaka. UFunatsu ucaphune Ulimi Lwezingxoxo Zabaholi Be-G7 mayelana nokuphoqwa kwezomnotho kusukela ngo-2022, “Sizokwandisa ukuqaphela kwethu izinsongo, okuhlanganisa ukuphoqelelwa komnotho, okuhloselwe ukubukela phansi ukuphepha nokuzinza komhlaba wonke. Kuze kube manje, sizophishekela ukubambisana okuthuthukisiwe futhi sihlole izindlela zokuthuthukisa ukuhlolwa, ukulungela, ukuvimbela, kanye nokusabela ezingozini ezinjalo, sisebenzise izindlela ezingcono kakhulu zokubhekana nokuchayeka kuyo yonke i-G7 nangaphezulu," futhi sathi iJapane izothatha lolu limi njenge umhlahlandlela wokwenza inqubekelaphambili kulo nyaka. Uphinde wakhuluma ngeqhaza lezinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe njenge-OECD “ekuqwashiseni amazwe ngamazwe,” futhi wacaphuna umbiko we-ASPI wango-2021 onesihloko esithi,Ukuphendula I-Trade Coercion, eyaphakamisa ukuthi i-OECD ithuthukise uhlu lwezinyathelo zokuphoqelela futhi isungule isizindalwazi ukuze kube sobala kakhulu.

   

  Ekuphenduleni lokho amaphaneli afisa ukukubona njengomphumela we-G7 Summit yalo nyaka,UVictor Chawathi, “ingxoxo ngesu eligcwalisa noma elengezelele ekunciphiseni umthelela kanye nokuqina ebibheka ukuthi amalungu e-G7 angabambisana kanjani mayelana nokusayina uhlobo oluthile lokuvimbela umnotho okuhlangene,” ngokuhlonza ukuncika okukhulu kweChina ezintweni eziwubukhazikhazi kanye namasu amaphakathi. U-Mariko Togashi ugcizelele ukuthi unethemba lokubona intuthuko nezingxoxo eziqhubekayo mayelana nezinyathelo ezihlangene, futhi wagcizelela ukubaluleka kokuvuma umehluko wezinhlaka zezomnotho nezezimboni phakathi kwamazwe ukuze athole indawo efanayo futhi aqinisekise izinga lokuvumelana azimisele ukukwenza.

   

  Amaphaneli abona ngazwi linye isidingo sokuthatha isinyathelo esiphuthumayo ukuze kubhekwane nokuphoqwa kwezomnotho okuholwa yiChina futhi bafuna impendulo ehlangene. Baphakamise umzamo odidiyelwe phakathi kwezizwe obandakanya ukukhulisa amandla okuqina kanye nokuhlukahluka kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka, ukukhuthaza ukubonakala obala, nokuhlola ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukuvinjwa komnotho ngokuhlanganyela. Amaphaneli aphinde agcizelela isidingo sempendulo ehambisanayo ecabangela izimo eziyingqayizivele zesimo ngasinye, kunokuncika endleleni efanayo, futhi bavumelana ngokuthi amaqembu omhlaba kanye nesifunda angadlala indima ebalulekile. Uma sibheka phambili, amaphaneli abone iNgqungquthela ye-G7 ezayo njengethuba lokuqhubeka nokuhlola amasu okuphendula ngokuhlanganyela ngokumelene nokuphoqwa kwezomnotho.