izindaba

Agasti 2, 2023

Imizila yaseYurophu igcine ibambe iqhaza elikhulu ezindlekweni zempahla, ekhuphuke ngo-31.4% ngesonto elilodwa. Imali yokugibela e-Transatlantic nayo yenyuka ngo-10.1% (ifinyelele isamba sokwenyuka ngama-38% kuyo yonke inyanga kaJulayi). Lokhu kwenyuka kwamanani kube nomthelela ku-Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) yakamuva ekhuphuke ngo-6.5% yaya kumaphuzu angu-1029.23, ifuna kabusha ileveli engaphezu kwamaphoyinti ayi-1000. Lo mkhuba wamanje wemakethe ungabonakala njengokubonisa kusenesikhathi kwemizamo yezinkampani zemikhumbi yokunyusa amanani emizileni yaseYurophu nase-America ngo-August.

Abangaphakathi baveza ukuthi ngokukhula kwenani elilinganiselwe lempahla e-Europe nase-United States kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okuqhubekayo komthamo owengeziwe wokuthumela, izinkampani zemikhumbi sezivele zifinyelele umkhawulo wokuhamba ngomkhumbi okuyize namashejuli ancishisiwe. Ukuthi bangakwazi yini ukuqhubeka nokwenyuka kwezinga lempahla phakathi nesonto lokuqala lika-Agasti kuzoba yiphuzu elibalulekile lokubhekwa.

Ngomhla ka-Agasti 1, izinkampani zemikhumbi zihlelelwe ukuvumelanisa ukukhuphuka kwentengo emizileni yaseYurophu nase-America. Phakathi kwazo, emzileni waseYurophu, izinkampani ezintathu ezinkulu zemikhumbi i-Maersk, i-CMA CGM, ne-Hapag-Lloyd zihamba phambili ekulungiseleleni ukukhuphuka kwemali yokugibela okubalulekile. Ngokolwazi oluvela kubathumeli bempahla, bathole izingcaphuno zakamuva ngomhla ka-27, okubonisa ukuthi umzila onqamula i-Atlantic kulindeleke ukuthi ukhuphuke ngo-$250-400 nge-TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit), uqondise u-$2000-3000 i-TEU ngayinye yase-US West Coast. kanye ne-US East Coast ngokulandelana. Emzileni waseYurophu, bahlela ukunyusa amanani ngo-$400-500 i-TEU ngayinye, okuhloswe ngayo ukwenyuka kuye cishe ku-$1600 i-TEU ngayinye.

Ochwepheshe bezimboni bakholelwa ukuthi izinga langempela lokunyuka kwentengo kanye nokuthi ingagcinwa isikhathi esingakanani kuzobhekwa ngokucophelela phakathi nesonto lokuqala lika-Agasti. Njengoba inani elikhulu lemikhumbi emisha ilethwa, izinkampani zemikhumbi zizobhekana nezinselelo ezinkulu. Kodwa-ke, ukunyakaza komholi wemboni, i-Mediterranean Shipping Company, okuye kwaba nokukhula okumangalisayo kwamandla ngo-12.2% engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, nakho kuqashwe ngeso lokhozi.
Njengesibuyekezo sakamuva, nazi izibalo ze-Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI):

I-Transpacific Route (US West Coast): I-Shanghai kuya e-US West Coast: $1943 i-FEU ngayinye (Iyunithi Elinganayo yamafidi angama-4), ukukhuphuka ngo-$179 noma ngo-10.15%.

I-Transpacific Route (US East Coast): I-Shanghai kuya e-US East Coast: $2853 i-FEU ngayinye, inyuke ngo-$177 noma ngo-6.61%.

Umzila WaseYurophu: I-Shanghai eya e-Europe: I-$ 975 nge-TEU ngayinye (Iyunithi Elinganayo Yezinyawo Ezingamashumi amabili), ukukhuphuka kwe-$ 233 noma i-31.40%.

I-Shanghai ukuya eMedithera: $1503 i-TEU ngayinye, ukukhuphuka kwama- $96 noma ama-6.61%. I-Persian Gulf Route: Izinga lempahla lingama-$839 i-TEU ngayinye, lithola ukwehla okuphawulekayo ngo-10.6% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi sangaphambilini.

Ngokusho kwe-Shanghai Shipping Exchange, isidingo sezokuthutha sihlala sisezingeni eliphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa, nebhalansi enhle yesidingo sokuhlinzeka, okuholela ekwenyukeni okuqhubekayo kwamazinga emakethe. Ngomzila waseYurophu, naphezu kwe-preliminary Markit Composite PMI ye-eurozone yehla yaya ku-48,9 ngoJulayi, okubonisa izinselelo zezomnotho, isidingo sezokuthutha sibonise ukusebenza okuhle, futhi izinkampani zemikhumbi zenze izinhlelo zokukhushulwa kwamanani, ziqhuba ukwanda kwezinga eliphezulu emakethe.

Njengesibuyekezo sakamuva, amanani wezimpahla zomzila waseNingizimu Melika (i-Santos) angu-$2513 i-TEU ngayinye, ahlangabezana nokwehla kwamasonto onke ngo-$67 noma ngo-2.60%. Ngomzila waseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia (i-Singapore), izinga lempahla lingama-$143 i-TEU ngayinye, ngokwehla kweviki ngama-$6 noma ngo-4.30%.

Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi uma kuqhathaniswa nezintengo ze-SCFI ngoJuni 30, amanani e-Transpacific Route (US West Coast) akhuphuke ngo-38%, i-Transpacific Route (US East Coast) inyuke ngo-20.48%, umzila waseYurophu ukhuphuke ngo-27.79%, futhi umzila waseMedithera ukhuphuke ngo-2.52%. Izinga eliphakeme lokunyuka elingaphezu kuka-20-30% emizileni emikhulu yase-US East Coast, US West Coast, kanye ne-Europe lidlule kude inani lenkomba ye-SCFI eliphelele ngo-7.93%.

Imboni ikholelwa ukuthi lokhu kukhula kuqhutshwa ngokuphelele ukuzimisela kwezinkampani zemikhumbi. Imboni yezokuthutha ibhekene nenani eliphakeme ekulethweni kwemikhumbi emisha, nokunqwabelana okuqhubekayo kwamandla amasha kusukela ngoMashi, kanye nerekhodi eliphakeme cishe lama-TEU angu-300,000 omthamo omusha ongezwe emhlabeni jikelele ngoJuni kuphela. NgoJulayi, nakuba kuye kwaba nokunyuka kancane kancane kwenani lempahla e-United States kanye nokuthuthuka okuthile eYurophu, umthamo oweqile usalokhu uyinselele ukugayeka, okubangele ukungalingani kwesidingo sokuhlinzeka. Izinkampani zemikhumbi bezilokhu zizinzisa amanani ezimpahla ngokuhamba ngomkhumbi okungenalutho kanye namashejuli ancishisiwe. Amahemuhemu asikisela ukuthi izinga lamanje lokuhamba ngomkhumbi elingenalutho lisondela endaweni ebucayi, ikakhulukazi emizileni yaseYurophu enemikhumbi eminingi emisha engu-20,000 ye-TEU eyethulwe.

Abathumeli bempahla baveze ukuthi imikhumbi eminingi ayikalayishwa ngokugcwele ekupheleni kukaJulayi nasekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, nokuthi ukukhuphuka kwentengo kwezinkampani zemikhumbi ngo-Agasti 1 kungamelana nanoma yikuphi ukwehla kuzoncika ekutheni kukhona yini ukuvumelana phakathi kwezinkampani zokudela amanani okulayisha kanye ngokuhlanganyela agcine amanani ezimpahla.

Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, kube nokukhuphuka kwezinga lezimpahla eziningi emzileni weTranspacific (US to Asia). NgoJulayi, ukunyuka okuyimpumelelo nokuzinzile kwafinyelelwa ngezici ezihlukahlukene, okuhlanganisa ukuhamba ngomkhumbi okungenalutho okubanzi, ukutholwa komthamo wezimpahla, isiteleka sechweba laseCanada, kanye nomphumela wokuphela kwenyanga.

Imboni yezokuthutha iveza ukuthi ukwehla okukhulu kwenani lempahla emzileni we-Transpacific esikhathini esidlule, okusondela noma ngisho awe ngaphansi komugqa wezindleko, kwaqinisa ukuzimisela kwezinkampani zemikhumbi ukunyusa amanani. Ukwengeza, phakathi nenkathi yokuncintisana okukhulu kwamazinga kanye namazinga aphansi ezimpahla zokuthutha emzileni weTranspacific, izinkampani eziningi zemikhumbi ezincane neziphakathi nendawo zaphoqeleka ukuba ziphume emakethe, zisimamisa amanani ezimpahla emzileni. Njengoba umthamo wezimpahla ukhula kancane kancane emzileni weTranspacific ngoJuni nangoJulayi, ukwenyuka kwentengo kwaqaliswa ngempumelelo.

Ngemuva kwale mpumelelo, izinkampani zemikhumbi zase-Europe ziphinde zaphindaphinda isipiliyoni kumzila waseYurophu. Nakuba kube nokukhuphuka okuthile komthamo wempahla emzileni waseYurophu muva nje, usalokhu unomkhawulo, futhi ukusimama kokunyuka kwezinga kuzoncika ekuhlinzekweni kwemakethe kanye namandla esidingo.
I-WCI yakamuva (World Container Index)kusuka ku-Drewry kubonisa ukuthi i-GRI (General Rate Increase), isiteleka sechweba laseCanada, kanye nokunciphisa umthamo konke kube nomthelela othile kumazinga wezimpahla e-Transpacific (US to Asia). Amathrendi akamuva e-WCI ami kanje: Izinga lezimpahla e-Shanghai ukuya e-Los Angeles (Transpacific US West Coast Route) liphule uphawu luka-$2000 futhi lahlala ku-$2072. Leli zinga lagcina ukubonakala ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule.

Izinga lempahla elisuka eShanghai ukuya eNew York (Transpacific US East Coast route) liphinde ladlula uphawu luka-$3000, lenyuka ngo-5% lafinyelela ku-$3049. Lokhu kubeka isivinini esisha sezinyanga eziyisithupha.

Imizila yeTranspacific US East kanye ne-US West Coast ibe negalelo ekwenyukeni ngo-2.5% ku-Drewry World Container Index (WCI), yafinyelela ku-$1576. Emasontweni amathathu adlule, i-WCI ikhuphuke ngo-$102, okumele inyuke cishe ngo-7%.

Le datha ibonisa ukuthi izici zakamuva, ezifana ne-GRI, isiteleka sechweba lase-Canada, kanye nokwehliswa kwamandla, kube nomthelela ezilinganisweni zempahla yomzila we-Transpacific, okuholela ekwenyukeni kwentengo nokuzinza okuhlobene.

Ngokwezibalo ze-Alphaliner, imboni yezokuthutha ibhekene negagasi lokudiliva imikhumbi emisha, cishe ama-TEU angama-30 womthamo womkhumbi olethwa emhlabeni wonke ngoJuni, okumaka irekhodi eliphakeme ngenyanga eyodwa. Imikhumbi engama-29 ilethwa, okulinganiselwa cishe umkhumbi owodwa ngosuku. Umkhuba wokwanda komthamo wemikhumbi emisha ubulokhu uqhubeka kusukela ngoNdasa kulo nyaka futhi kulindeleke ukuthi uhlale usemazingeni aphezulu kulo nyaka wonke nangolandelayo.

Idatha evela ku-Clarkson iphinde ibonise ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, isamba semikhumbi ye-container engu-147 enamandla angu-975,000 TEU ilethwe, okubonisa ukunyuka konyaka ngo-129%. UClarkson ubikezela ukuthi umthamo wokulethwa kwemikhumbi yomhlaba wonke uzofinyelela ezigidini ezi-2 ze-TEU kulo nyaka, futhi imboni ilinganisela ukuthi isikhathi esiphezulu sokudiliva singaqhubeka kuze kube ngu-2025.

Phakathi kwezinkampani eziyishumi ezihamba phambili zokuthutha amabhokisi emhlabeni jikelele, ukukhula okuphezulu komthamo engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka kufinyelelwe yi-Yang Ming Marine Transport, ekleliswe endaweni yeshumi, ngokunyuka ngo-13.3%. Ukukhula komthamo okwesibili okuphezulu kwafinyelelwa yi-Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), ekleliswe endaweni yokuqala, ngokunyuka ngo-12.2%. Ukukhula komthamo okwesithathu okuphezulu kubonwe nguNippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (Ulayini we-NYK), okleliswe endaweni yesikhombisa, ngokunyuka ngo-7.5%. I-Evergreen Marine Corporation, nakuba yakha imikhumbi eminingi emisha, ikhule ngo-0.7% kuphela. Amandla e-Yang Ming Marine Transport ehle ngo-0.2%, kwathi iMaersk yehla ngo-2.1%. Imboni ilinganisela ukuthi izinkontileka zokuqashisa imikhumbi ezimbalwa kungenzeka zinqanyuliwe.

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