izindaba

Agasti 16, 2023

Ngonyaka odlule, inkinga yamandla eqhubekayo ekhungethe iYurophu yathola ukunakwa okusabalele. Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, amanani entengo yegesi yemvelo yaseYurophu ahlala ezinzile.

Nokho, ezinsukwini zamuva nje, kuye kwaba nokuhlinzwa okungazelelwe. Isiteleka esingase sibe khona esingalindelekile e-Australia, esingakenzeki, sidale imiphumela ngokungalindelekile emakethe yegesi yemvelo ekude yase-Europe, eqhele ngezinkulungwane zamamayela.

Konke Ngenxa Yeziteleka?

Ezinsukwini zakamuva, ithrendi yentengo ye-European benchmark TTF yekusasa legesi yemvelo yenkontileka yenyanga eseduze ibonise ukuguquguquka okukhulu. Intengo yekusasa, eqale cishe kuma-euro angama-30 ngehora le-megawathi, inyuke okwesikhashana yafinyelela ngaphezulu kwama-euro angama-43 ngehora lemegawathi ngesikhathi sokuhweba, yafinyelela endaweni ephezulu kakhulu kusukela maphakathi noJuni.

Intengo yokugcina yokukhokha ime kuma-euro angama-39.7, okumaka ukwenyuka okukhulu kwama-28% enanini lokuvala losuku. Ukuntengantenga kwentengo okubukhali kudalwe ngokuyinhloko ezinhlelweni zeziteleka zabasebenzi kwezinye izikhungo ezibalulekile zegesi yemvelo ewuketshezi e-Australia.

Ngokombiko ovela ku-“Australian Financial Review,” u-99% wabasebenzi abakhiqizayo abangu-180 esiteji segesi yemvelo ewuketshezi ye-Woodside Energy e-Australia bayasisekela isenzo sesiteleka. Abasebenzi kudingeka banikeze isaziso sezinsuku ezingu-7 ngaphambi kokuqala isiteleka. Ngenxa yalokho, imboni yegesi yemvelo ewuketshezi ingase ivalwe ekuqaleni kwesonto elizayo.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, abasebenzi bakwaChevron embonini yendawo yegesi yemvelo ewuketshezi nabo basabisa ngokungenela isiteleka.Zonke lezi zici zingavimbela ukuthunyelwa kwegesi yemvelo ewuketshezi evela e-Australia. Eqinisweni, igesi yemvelo ewuketshezi yase-Australia ayivami ukugeleza iye eYurophu; isebenza ngokuyinhloko njengomphakeli e-Asia.

Kodwa-ke, ukuhlaziya kuphakamisa ukuthi uma ukunikezwa okuvela e-Australia kuncipha, abathengi base-Asia bangase bakhulise ukuthenga kwabo igesi yemvelo ewuketshezi evela e-United States nase-Qatar, phakathi kweminye imithombo, ngaleyo ndlela baqinise ukuncintisana ne-Europe. Ngomhla ka-10, izintengo zegesi yemvelo yaseYurophu zehla kancane, futhi abahwebi bayaqhubeka nokuhlola umthelela wezinto ze-bearish kanye ne-bullish.

I-EU Ithuthukisa Izinqolobane Zegesi Yemvelo Yase-Ukraine

InEU, amalungiselelo obusika balo nyaka aqale kusenesikhathi. Ukusetshenziswa kwegesi ebusika kuvame ukuphinda kabili kunasehlobo, kanti izinqolobane zegesi yemvelo ye-EU njengamanje zisondela ku-90% womthamo wazo.

TIzindawo zokugcina igesi yemvelo ze-EU zingagcina kuphela ama-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyikhulu, kanti isidingo sonyaka se-EU sisukela cishe kuma-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-350 kuya kuma-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-500. I-EU ihlonze ithuba lokusungula indawo yokugcina igesi yemvelo enamasu e-Ukraine. Kubikwa ukuthi izikhungo zase-Ukraine zinganikeza i-EU amandla okugcina ongeziwe angama-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-10.

Idatha iphinde ibonise ukuthi ngoJulayi, umthamo obhukiwe wamapayipi egesi yemvelo aletha igesi esuka e-EU iye e-Ukraine afinyelele izinga eliphezulu kakhulu cishe eminyakeni emithathu, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi aphindwe kabili kule nyanga. Njengoba i-EU yandisa izindawo ezigcina igesi yemvelo, abangaphakathi embonini baphakamisa ukuthi lobu busika bungase buphephe kakhulu uma buqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule.

Kodwa-ke, baphinde baxwayise ngokuthi amanani egesi yemvelo aseYurophu angaqhubeka nokuguquguquka phakathi nonyaka owodwa kuya kwemibili ezayo. I-CitiGroup ibikezela ukuthi uma umcimbi wesiteleka sase-Australia uqala ngokushesha futhi udlulele ebusika, ungase ubangele ukuthi amanani entengo kagesi yemvelo aphindeke kabili aze afike kuma-euro angu-62 ngehora le-megawatt ngoJanuwari ngonyaka ozayo.

Ngabe iChina izothinteka?

Uma kunenkinga e-Australia ethinta amanani entengo yegesi yemvelo yaseYurophu, ingabe ingalithinta nezwe lethu? Ngenkathi i-Australia ingumhlinzeki omkhulu we-LNG esifundeni sase-Asia-Pacific, amanani entengo kagesi wemvelo wasekhaya waseChina abelokhu esebenza kahle.

Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-National Bureau of Statistics, kusukela ngomhla zingama-31 kuJulayi, intengo yemakethe yegesi yemvelo e-liquefied (LNG) e-China yayingu-3,924.6 yuan ngethani, ukwehla ngo-45.25% ukusuka phezulu ekupheleni konyaka odlule.

IHhovisi Lolwazi LoMkhandlu Wombuso lashilo ngaphambilini esithangamini senqubomgomo esivamile ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ukukhiqizwa kwegesi yemvelo yaseShayina kanye nokuthengwa kwamanye amazwe kokubili kugcine ukukhula okuzinzile, okuqinisekisa ngempumelelo izidingo zamakhaya nezimboni.

Ngokwezibalo zokuthunyelwa, ukusetshenziswa kwegesi yemvelo eChina engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka bekungama-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-194.9, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-6.7%. Kusukela ekuqaleni kwehlobo, ukusetshenziswa kwegesi okuphezulu kakhulu kwansuku zonke ekuphehleni ugesi kudlule ama-cubic metres ayizigidi ezingama-250, okuhlinzeka ngokusekelwa okuqinile kokukhiqizwa kukagesi okuphezulu kakhulu.

“Umbiko Wokuthuthukiswa Kwegesi Yemvelo YaseChina (2023)” oshicilelwe yiNational Energy Administration ukhombisa ukuthi intuthuko isiyonke yemakethe yegesi yemvelo yaseChina izinzile. Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJuni, ukusetshenziswa kwegesi yemvelo kuzwelonke bekungama-cubic metres angu-194.1, okuwukukhula konyaka ngo-5.6%, kanti ukukhiqizwa kwegesi yemvelo kufinyelela ku-cubic metres eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-115.5, okuwukukhula konyaka ngonyaka ngo-5.4%.

Ngaphakathi, ngenxa yezimo zomnotho kanye nokuthambekela kwamanani entengo yegesi yemvelo yasekhaya neyamazwe ngamazwe, kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo siqhubeke nokukhuphuka. Ngaphambilini kulinganiselwa ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwegesi yemvelo yaseChina ngonyaka wezi-2023 kuzoba phakathi kwama-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-385 kanye nama-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-390, kanti izinga lokukhula konyaka nonyaka lisukela ku-5.5% kuye ku-7%. Lokhu kukhula kuzoqhutshwa ikakhulukazi ukusetshenziswa kwegesi yasemadolobheni kanye nokusetshenziswa kwegesi ekuphehleni ugesi.

Sengiphetha, kubonakala sengathi lo mcimbi uzoba nomthelela olinganiselwe kumanani entengo yegesi yemvelo yaseChina.